Market Updates for August 17, 2018

Section Type

Dairy | Cheese

The CME Block Market has continued to stay with in the range we have been seeing for some time now.  The Barrel market has continued with these sharp declines followed by retractions back towards the block market.  

Last week:

Block - Up

Barrel - Up

This Week:

Block - Up

Barrel - Up

Dairy | Eggs

Retail demand fair to good. Extra large through mediums well balanced to close. Market steady to full steady.

Last week:

Large - Up

Medium - Up

Small - No Change

This Week:

Large - Up

Medium - Up

Small - No Change

Dairy | Butter

There is tightening in production as warm weather reduces production and cream is going to ice cream manufacturers. Inventories are still more than adequate when announced at the end of June but it will still take a significant increase to move prices lower.

Last week:

Butter - Up

This Week:

Butter - Up

Grocery & Bakery | Wheat

Disappointing crops in Europe and dryness in Australia have pushed world wheat prices higher. US wheat prices rallied sharply higher, but have eased back as the market waits for exports to pick up.

Grocery & Bakery | Soybean Oil

Soybean oil prices hit the bottom of the USDA's $0.28-$0.32/lb projected trading range and bounced a little higher. As long as the soybean crop looks large prices will stay low.

Grocery & Bakery | Sugar

This years sugar beet crop is in good shape with the notable exception of Michigan, where dryness has left one-third of the crop in fair-to-poor condition. Prices are steady.

Meat | Beef

Cattle prices are lower as feedlots try to keep market-ready cattle moving. Improved margins should motivate packer to increase beef output.

Ground Beef:

Prices are trending higher into Labor Day.

Ribs:

Retail ads are out and supplies are cleaned up; prices are higher.

Briskets:

Brisket prices have strengthened following weeks of smaller production. As packers increase output prices could ease back.

Rounds:

Round prices are mostly steady with some weakness noted for flats.

Strips:

Retail promotions are keeping prices steady.

Tenders:

Tender prices should be supported until closer to Labor Day.

Thin Meats:

Reduced beef output often supports thin meat prices since such a small amount is harvested from each animal. We saw prices adjust a little higher in the last few weeks after packers throttled slaughter back.

Meat | Pork

With hogs prices nearing 10-year lows we have dialed a lot of bad news into prices. Pork prices are now very low overall so any further weakness may be more muted.

Butts:

Butt prices are finding some support from bookings for Labor Day. Product is still readily available at steady money.

Hams:

With bone-in ham prices 20% higher, export interest has cooled. Boneless ham demand is still pretty good with asking prices working higher.

Bacon/Bellies:

Belly prices continue to slip but the pace of the decline has slowed. Annual lows were reached during the fall in each of the last two years.

Ribs:

Sparerib and backrib prices are inching higher as we get closer to Labor Day.

Loins:

​Bone-in and boneless loin prices are steady due to consistent retail interest.

Meat | Beef

Cattle prices are lower as feedlots try to keep market-ready cattle moving. Improved margins should motivate packer to increase beef output.

Ground Beef:

Prices are trending higher into Labor Day.

Ribs:

Retail ads are out and supplies are cleaned up; prices are higher.

Briskets:

Brisket prices have strengthened following several weeks of smaller production. As packers increase output prices could ease back.

Rounds:

Round prices are mostly steady with some weakness noted for flats.

Strips:

Retail promotions are keeping prices steady.

Tenders:

Tender prices should be supported until closer to Labor Day.

Thin Meats:

Reduced beef output often supports thin meat prices since such a small amount is harvested from each animal. We saw prices adjust a little higher in the last few weeks after packers throttled slaughter back.

Meat | Pork

With hogs prices nearing 10-year lows we have dialed a lot of bad news into prices. Pork prices are now very low overall so any further weakness may be more muted.

Butts:

Butts are available at steady prices.

Hams:

With bone-in ham prices 20% higher, export interest has cooled. Domestic processor have also slowed their buying now that we are getting close to Labor Day. Prices are a little lower.

Bacon/Bellies:

Belly prices continue to slip but the pace of the decline has slowed. Annual lows were reached during the fall in each of the last two years.

Ribs:

Sparerib and backrib prices are inching higher as we get closer to Labor Day.

Loins:

​Bone-in and boneless loin prices are on the defensive until we get closer to Labor Day.

Poultry | Chicken

Whole bird/cut-up chicken is still plentiful but discounting is less severe.

Breast and Tenders:

Jumbo breast meat prices have set a new record low in front of Labor Day, not a good sign.Breast prices have steadied out as retailers add additional "hot" features.Tender prices are still trending lower and are now close to 10-year lows for this time of year.

Wings:

Jumbo wing are well-cleared at advancing prices. Small wing prices remain in a free-fall as processors consistently show extra loads at discounts

Dark Meat:

Leg and thigh meat are getting harder to place now that they are priced at a premium to jumbo breast meat..

Poultry | Turkey

Whole turkey prices remain steady. Frozen whole turkey inventories are now back in line with last year at this time.

Seafood | Finfish

Cod, Alaskan 1x:

Supply remains tight and costs are firm, this is partly due to decreased quota in other regions of the world. Expect this to remain this way through the end of the year.

Cod, Atlantic 1x:

The 1x frozen Atl. cod loins are firm on costs with the  announcement of a 25% reduction on quota compared to 2017 out of the Newfoundland and Labrador regions in Canada.  Inventory has been ramped up to cover increased demand on all sizes.  Expect cost to remain elevated through at least the end of the year.       

Cod, Atlantic 2x:

Fishing in Northern Europe has concluded. Total catch this season is poor and raw material is in short supply for 2018 until early 2019 when fishing resumes.

Cod, Pacific 2x:

Heavy restrictions on total allowable catch in certain Alaskan fishing grounds. Raw material is now more expensive than Atlantic Cod and expected to firm continuously for all of 2018.

Pollock, Atlantic 1x:

Costs have softened slightly on some sizes of the 1x fz Pollock but most remain steady for the balance of the summer and through the B Pollock season . Many anticipated with the rising cost of Cod that Pollock would be the next lower cost option. For the most part that "switch" has not materialized to the degree first thought. 

Pollock, Pacific 2x:

Slight firming of pricing. Starting to see substitution demand from cod users.

Haddock:

Raw material prices firming due to the cheapest ground fish compared to Pacific and Atlantic Cod. Continued substitutions from cod consumers driving up demand and cost. Available raw material is in short supply.

Domestic Lake Fish:

Costs have softened and leveled off for most of the summer on perch, walleye and whitefish.  Supply had been readily available on perch and smaller sizes of walleye.  Larger walleye and 8/10 whitefish have been hard to find at this time due to the class of fish on the lake   As we enter the fall fishing season we expect all supply issues to be alleviated.  

Euro Lake Fish & Zander:

Supply is good and costs have been stable with only minor adjustments to market. This is a more cost effective substitute for the higher priced domestic lake fish items where applicable.

Mahi Mahi:

Mahi Mahi costs and supply are currently steady for an active demand.    Typically the spring season brings added containers from Taiwan and Viet Nam to supplement , but inventory did not materialize this season out of Asia.  New S America product should begin to arrive in Nov  / Dec. , price will be determined at that time.  

Frozen Tuna, Swordfish :

Frozen tuna harvests out of Vietnam are considered stable for this year with supply listed as normal. Product out of Indonesia has been slow to materialize and therefore has put added pressure on the product out of Vietnam. The Thailand season has ended. Expect prices to continue to be stable for the summer grilling season with only a uptick expected on the smaller 4 oz size of tuna with supply being tighter on this size. Swordfish has also started to firm on the 6 and 8 oz portions, supply has been tight .    

Swai:

Cost fingerlings increased after Chinese New Year instead when market expected a drop. US trade commission assesses preliminary higher duty rates in Swai. Prices firm with short supply until end of 2018/early 2019.

Tilapia:

Low production during this time of the year. Prices recently firmed.

Seafood | Shrimp

Imported Black Tiger:

Black Tiger shrimp prices are stable and supply is good on small and middle sizes. There are shortages of large sizes due to limited production (2-4 through 13-15) and heavy demand.

Imported White:

White shrimp supply is somewhat sporadic with shipments being late due to heavy demand overseas. Market values are good and offer great opportunities to menu shrimp this summer. Expect supply to be better as we roll into the late summer months as production catches up.

Latin White:

Latin White shrimp are firm with replacement prices firming. Supply is good for the time being.

Domestic White & Brown:

Domestic Brown shrimp are steady in price as we roll into the new season for Texas. Larger sizes of white and brown headless shrimp should begin to land over the next few months.

Domestic PUD:

Domestic PUD production has slowed on smaller shrimp. While boats begin to target larger whites and browns where available, we should see better production in larger and middle size peeled shrimp.

Domestic Rock & Pink:

Rock & Pink shrimp are both in good supply.

Seafood | Lobster

North Atlantic:

Lobster tail cost have been steady to date.  Summer tourism helps to keep demand and cost elevated.  As the Canadian season has ended Maine has been ramping up with reported good landings and  adequate supply to produce tails.  Meat supply is steady with some softening on cost.   

 

Warm Water:

The season has been delayed out of Brazil and to date supply has been limited.  Smaller sizes are harder to come by at the moment.  The Bahamian season product should be arriving soon to help alleviate the current pressure on supply of the WW species.  For now costs have increased quickly with no immediate relief in sight.  

Seafood | Crab

Snow Crab:

The global shortage of snow crab will continue through 2018. Prices have leveled off and remain firm on the larger 8 and 10 up products with limited offerings.  5/8 have softened slightly as there is more inventory of this size on the market as it was the predominate size harvested this season .  

 

Red Swimming Crab:

A new 10% tariff on all seafood items should go into effect in August.  The market is still uncertain however, between high market prices, and limited supply, cost might go up.  This coupled with the void in the market on red swimming crab only strengthens this possibility.  We are still expected to start receiving shipments on red crab in October.  The main crab harvest is October – December. 

Blue Swimming Crab:

Prices are still high with great inventory.  There has been a slight decrease in pricing from Indonesia while Philippines and India move up to be more in line with Indo.  For the next 60-90 days prices will stay level to a possible dip however, Q4 is expected to pick back up.  With the red swimming still high with limited supply, this too drives the price up.  Overall prices will come down a bit.

Seafood | Scallops

With increased quota this season and more open areas to fish...costs have decreased  for the first time in several years.  Supply has been more readily available in the larger sizes.  As we enter the fall and the season starts to wrap up, expect costs to start to firm for the winter months.