Market Updates for April 15, 2022
Dairy | Eggs
Large - Down
Medium - Down
Retail demand mixed. Supplies long. Market weak.
Dairy | Butter
Inventories are tight on butter and it continues to remain elevated with expectation of only temporary relief scattered throughout the year, many see any dip an opportunity to buy thus driving markets higher.
Dairy | Cheese
Barrel - Up
Block - Up
The CME block and barrel markets have continued moving higher again lately. Speculators feel this is still due to strong US exports, weak international supply, and continued strong domestic demand. The traders have continued uncertainty which is adding pressure to the upside."
Grocery & Bakery | Sugar
Pricing continues to be steady to rising up slowly as supply from the current crop year is scarce leading to higher spot pricing. As beet harvests have seen lower sugar content, there is less than planned beet sugar available in the market, especially in the Midwest. We may have to look at other beet suppliers and cane sugar at higher prices to fill gaps in supply.
Grocery & Bakery | Flour
Pricing continues to ride the waves of weather forecasts as poor crop conditions dominate the plains region among others. Until we see some rain in these regions, wheat prices are staying steady to higher. To date, supply is not an issue as US prices are too high to export at the moment. If we get some precipitation, we should see pricing drop some though the war in the Ukraine will keep pricing elevated versus this time last year. There is very little to suggest pricing dropping signifcantly any time soon.
Grocery & Bakery | Frying Oil
Despite the USDA Prospective Planting report lifting soybean acreage to a record size, the market prices for soy and soy by-products has remained strong. One must look at the global picture to make sense of this, so this week's write up will zoom out to identify the key events which are driving today's oil market. Keep in mind the world rankings of oil consumption is 1. Palm oil, 2. Soybean oil and 3. Sunflower oil.
- 2021: Major drought conditions reduce Canadian canola crop by 30%.
- 2021: Covid-19 lockdowns in Asia keep workers from harvesting palm oil for extended periods of time.
- 2022: Drought conditions in South America reduce the corn and soybean crops significantly.
- 2022: Russia invades Ukraine. Supply chain channels are disrupted while sanctions against Russian products stack up. Both countries combine for almost 80% of globally exported sunflower oil.
When you add everything up, it becomes easier to see world-wide vegetable oil prices are under immense stress. Supply disruptions lead to substituting and rationing. Even a larger projected soy crop in the US isn't enough to drastically change the balance, but it could help in mitigating further price movements higher. Keep in mind the oil from the new crop won't come to market until the fall. Looking out, vegetable oil prices should remain firm until the norther hemisphere harvests occur. Beyond that will be heavily dependent on the output.
Meat | Pork
Pork harvest is excepted to be close to 2.5 million head this week.
Buyers are starting to focus on Lent. With less focus on pork. prices could decline. Large decreases are not forecast.
Bone in Butt prices are increasing however the upward pace is slowing. Boneless Butts prices are close to last week's and starting to stabilize. Boneless loin prices have stabilized.
Belly prices continues higher as retailers are aggressively filling the shelves and food service demand is picking up.
Spares, St Louis and back rib prices are firm.
Meat | Beef
Cattle harvest has held steady keeping up with demand. Live cattle costs are still high due to cattle supply and high feed costs. However, look for them to take a breather as we get into the summer months. Much anticipated tight cattle supplies in the fourth quarter are still in the forecast as the herd is thin out front based on light placements in previous months. Uncertainty in the markets and cattle costs for the remainder of 2022 has packers tightening the reins on out front pricing leaving customers unsure of product costs for the second half of the year.
Most spring grilling season items are starting to perk up and we should see decent runs as the weather gets better across the country. Expectations for peak pricing during the spring season are close to or slightly below the previous year's highs. Ribeyes and strip loins are starting to move and should show strength for the remainder of April and through June. Tenderloins have held up well and are on an ascending climb, we should see good demand leading into Mothers Day. End cuts are still holding at inflated levels, primarily being supported by high ground beef costs. Thin means such as skirt meat are steady to higher due to seasonal demand. Grinds dropped in March but have seen good demand and are now moving higher being supported by high 90% and 50% trim costs partly driven by a reduced supply of imported boneless beef for used for ground beef.