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Market Updates: December 16, 2016

Market Updates

Center of the Plate

Beef

Ribeye and tenderloin prices appear to have topped out, as buyers' interest in buying fill-in inventory for holiday features winds down. Restaurant traffic from holiday shoppers is driving demand for ground beef and briskets. Packers are talking reduced kills and are trying to put more money on end cuts like chucks and rounds.

Pricing Trend

Ground Beef 81%

Brisket CHC & SEL

Inside Round CHC & SEL

Ribeye CHC & SEL

Strips CHC & SEL

Ball Tips CHC & SEL

Tenders CHC & SEL

Flank Steak CHC & SEL

Current Week

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Down

Up

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Up

Up

Down

Up

Flat

Down

Flat

Pork

Interest in hams is starting to wind down as we get close to Christmas. Offerings of bellies and trim are light with a lot of product pre-booked for freezer inventory programs. Ribs, loins and butts are well-cleared, as buyers try to line up product for the two short holiday weeks ahead.

Pricing Trend

Butts

Hams

Spareribs

Loins

Bacon

Current Week

Up

Up

Flat

Up

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Up

Down

Up

Up

Flat

Chicken

Breast meat and tenders have both found price levels that are attracting buying for freezer programs. Thigh meat is still adjusting lower, but is now competitive with breast meat. Wings are balanced but available.

Pricing Trend

Jumbo BNLS/SKNLS Breast

Clipped Tenderloins

BNLS/SKNLS Thigh Meat

Jumbo Wings

Medium Wings

Current Week

Flat

Down

Down

Flat

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Down

Flat

Flat

Turkey

There appears to be more whole turkeys than are needed for Christmas. Prices will probably trend lower.

Pricing Trend

UB Hens, East, 12 lb. Frozen

UB Toms, East, 22 lb. Frozen

UB Turkey Breast, East, 8-10 lb.

Current Week

Flat

Down

Down

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Down

Down

Dairy

Dairy Category

Last Week

Current Week

Block Cheese

Down

Down

Barrel Cheese

Down

Up

Butter

Down

Down

Large Eggs

Up

Up

Medium Eggs

Up

Up

Small Eggs

Up

Up

Cheese

The CME Block and Barrel Markets have begun to converge to more historical separation. Activity is strong on the market floor driving the market up. Speculators feel there is plenty of cheese out there to satisfy demand so the market should not drive too far on the upside.

Eggs

Processed eggs are fully available. Within shell eggs, retail demand is good to very good. Supplies of larger eggs are short and the market is firm. As such, the strong retail and seasonal demand coupled with tight supply drove markets up steeply last week from long-standing lows.

Butter

Butter is in strong demand and caught many off guard which drove pricing up on the spot markets, but inventory remains high and above last year. What is keeping pricing up is many feel they missed the lower pricing and are now working to lock in loads for the first half of the year. Expectations are that inventories will remain at or above prior year and pricing will stay in the neighborhood it is now for the first quarter.

Grocery & Bakery

Wheat

Protein premiums continue to edge higher as elevators ask more for high-quality wheat. Bulk pizza flour prices are now 5-10% higher than last year despite overall wheat prices being lower. The supply of high protein wheat appears limited.

Pricing Trend

High-Gluten Flour

Semolina Pasta Flour

Current Week

Flat

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Soybean Oil

The USDA raised their 2017 price range for soybean oil by 2 cents/lb. in their latest forecast. Prices have consolidated around the upper end of the USDA forecast range.

Pricing Trend

Soybean Oil

Current Week

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Sugar

Many beet sugar suppliers are well-sold for 2017 and are holding prices firm. Cane sugar is trading in a range. Refiners with domestic supply are selling in the middle of the range; suppliers who rely on imports are at the upper end of pricing.

Pricing Trend

Sugar

Current Week

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat