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Market Updates: December 2, 2016

Market Updates

Center of the Plate

Beef

Cattle prices have jumped 10% in the last 5 weeks; beef prices are up 2%. Packer margins, which were very high at the end of October, have come back down. Weekly cattle slaughter peaked in mid-November and should be smaller in December. Holiday price peaks for ribeyes and tenders should be reached this week or next. The outlook for other beef items is mostly flat.

Pricing Trend

Ground Beef 81%

Brisket CHC & SEL

Inside Round CHC & SEL

Ribeye CHC & SEL

Strips CHC & SEL

Ball Tips CHC & SEL

Tenders CHC & SEL

Flank Steak CHC & SEL

Current Week

Up

Up

Flat

Up

Up

Up

Up

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Down

Flat

Up

Flat

Flat

Flat

Pork

Hog slaughter has been running 5% over prior year versus the 2-3%, indicated in the last USDA Hogs & Pigs survey. Weights are off 1% from last year, suggesting that farmers are marketing hogs ahead of schedule to limit financial losses. We will probably see a few more weeks of maximum production in December, before it starts to wind down a little in early 2017. Butts and hams are still enjoying good export interest. Spareribs and loins may be bottoming out as processors put up frozen inventory. Usually bacon has a few more down weeks, but recent freezer inventories were surprisingly small.

Pricing Trend

Butts

Hams

Spareribs

Loins

Bacon

Current Week

Up

Up

Flat

Flat

Down

Next Week’s Projections

Up

Up

Up

Flat

Down

Chicken

Thigh meat prices continue to head lower, but are still more expensive than breast meat. Wings are tight, with medium wings extremely hard to find.

Pricing Trend

Jumbo BNLS/SKNLS Breast

Clipped Tenderloins

BNLS/SKNLS Thigh Meat

Jumbo Wings

Medium Wings

Current Week

Flat

Flat

Down

Flat

Up

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Down

Up

Up

Turkey

Markets are adjusting lower following Thanksgiving.

Pricing Trend

UB Hens, East, 12 lb. Frozen

UB Toms, East, 22 lb. Frozen

UB Turkey Breast, East, 8-10 lb.

Current Week

Down

Down

Down

Next Week’s Projections

Down

Down

Down

Dairy

Dairy Category

Last Week

Current Week

Block Cheese

Up

Down

Barrel Cheese

Up

Down

Butter

Up

Up

Large Eggs

Flat

Up

Medium Eggs

Flat

Flat

Small Eggs

Flat

Flat

Cheese

The CME Block and Barrel markets continue to have an untraditional large separation between the two values. Speculators feel this will continue in the short term with the markets struggling to find a direction.

Eggs

Processed eggs are fully available. Within shell eggs, retail demand is good to very good. Supplies are close and the market is firm.

Butter

Butter manufacturers are in full production in an effort to fulfill year end holiday demand. Some buyers are finding it difficult to secure product because most inventories are committed already, and the spot market is moving up as buyers gets nervous of not being able to secure product at a favorable price. Buying is happening now, rather than waiting for pricing to soften.

Grocery & Bakery

Wheat

Millers are keeping a watchful eye on protein premiums as concerns about the availability of high quality wheat continue.

Pricing Trend

High-Gluten Flour

Semolina Pasta Flour

Current Week

Flat

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Soybeans

Soybean oil prices jumped higher last week following the Department of Energy’s surprise announcement of larger 2017 biodiesel mandates. South American soybean crop weather has been dry, but forecasts call for rain.

Pricing Trend

Soybean Oil

Current Week

Up

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Sugar

Sugar prices are firm at most plants.

Pricing Trend

Sugar

Current Week

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat