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Market Updates: January 6, 2017

Market Updates

Center of the Plate

Beef

Retail features created strong pulls for many beef cuts and ground beef. Despite lower tenders and ribeyes, overall beef prices rose to the same levels they were last year. Great news for packers who are spending 15% less to buy cattle. Now that we are getting back into full production schedules following the holidays, beef prices should level out. We will need to watch closely on how prices respond to heavy production over the next few weeks. Packers should be willing to take discounts to keep beef moving, their margins are very large.

 

Pricing Trend

Ground Beef 81%

Brisket CHC & SEL

Inside Round CHC & SEL

Ribeye CHC & SEL

Strips CHC & SEL

Ball Tips CHC & SEL

Tenders CHC & SEL

Flank Steak CHC & SEL

Current Week

Up

Flat

Up

Down

Up

Up

Down

Up

Next Week's Projections

Flat

Flat

Flat

Down

Flat

Flat

Down

Flat

Pork

Like beef, pork prices have been bouyed by strong retail demand and holiday-reduced production. Now that we are past holiday plant closures, we can expect to see heavy production. Packers are making great margins, so they won't slow production anytime soon. Again, we will need to see how prices hold up.

 

Pricing Trend

Butts

Hams

Spareribs

Loins

Bacon

Current Week

Up

Down

Up

Up

Up

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Up

Flat

Up

Chicken

Holiday productions slowdowns did not help chicken prices much, other than steadying out wings. Demand for smaller-sized breast meat and tenders, however, has been a notable bright spot. Jumbo breast and thigh meat are both oversupplied.

 

Pricing Trend

Jumbo BNLS/SKNLS Breast

Clipped Tenderloins

BNLS/SKNLS Thigh Meat

Jumbo Wings

Medium Wings

Current Week

Flat

Flat

Flat

Flat

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Up

Flat

Flat

Flat

Turkey

Turkey processors continue to accept lower prices for whole turkeys, with retailers slow to commit on freezer inventory builds. Bone-in breast meat still looks a little pricey, so there could be one or two more downward price ticks.

 

Pricing Trend

UB Hens, East, 12 lb. Frozen

UB Toms, East, 22 lb. Frozen

UB Turkey Breast, East, 8-10 lb.

Current Week

Down

Down

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Down

Down

Down

Dairy

Dairy Category

Last Week

Current Week

Block Cheese

Down

Down

Barrel Cheese

Down

Up

Butter

Up

Down

Large Eggs

Down

Down

Medium Eggs

Down

Down

Small Eggs

No Change

Down

Cheese

The CME Block and Barrel markets have become bearish as of late.  Speculators feel the upside to the market is minimal but not impossible.  More focus on the two markets converging to more historical separation.

 

Eggs

Processed eggs are fully available. Within shell eggs, retail demand ranges from poor to fair.  Supplies are long and the market is weak.

 

Butter

This time of year is normally slow for butter sales, but is seems that with the limited bulk butter and active domestic orders, demand could remain active.  There seems to be a lot of wait and see attitudes out there on the direction of butter pricing.  It is still too early in the year to see if these butter price trend increases are going to hold.  Futures are still pointing to high market pricing through 2017 and at or above current spot markets.

 

Grocery & Bakery

 

Wheat

Protein premiums for milling grade high protein wheat have adjusted up again; flour prices also moved a little higher. Pasta prices were flat.

 

Pricing Trend

High-Gluten Flour

Semolina Pasta Flour

Current Week

Up

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Flat

Soybean Oil

Many beet sugar suppliers are well-sold for 2017 and are holding prices firm. Cane sugar is trading in a range. Refiners with domestic supply are selling in the middle of the range; suppliers who rely on imports are at the upper end of pricing.

 

Pricing Trend

Soybean Oil

Current Week

Up

Next Week’s Projections

Flat

Sugar

Many beet sugar suppliers are well-sold for 2017 and are holding prices firm. Cane sugar is trading in a range. Refiners with domestic supply are selling in the middle of the range; suppliers who rely on imports are at the upper end of pricing.

 

Pricing Trend

Sugar

Current Week

Flat

Next Week’s Projections

Flat