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Market Updates: November 28, 2016

Market Updates

Center of the Plate

Beef

Cattle prices continue to edge higher--up 2% a week for the last month. Boxed beef prices have been mostly sideways leaving packer margins a little thinner. While there is still enough margin to keep packers running full schedules, Saturday shifts are likely to be dropped. We are seeing higher prices for holiday items like tenders and ribeyes, but we are also seeing rounds, ground beef, ball tips and other cuts steady out after big volumes were cleaned up last week.

Pricing Trend

Ground Beef 81%

Brisket CHC & SEL

Inside Round CHC & SEL

Ribeye CHC & SEL

Strips CHC & SEL

Ball Tips CHC & SEL

Tenders CHC & SEL

Flank Steak CHC & SEL

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Pork

Pork production continues to run at full capacity, which is weighing heavily on all prices. Retail pork cuts, like loins, have been especially weak. Bone-in pork loins are trading at $0.72/lb, which is just a couple cents away from the 25-year low set on 12.12.1998. Items with some food service and/or export demand are faring better. Bellies (bacon), butts and ham prices are all falling, but have not been crushed like loin prices. The fall “hog run” should end by mid-December, which should gradually shrink supply and allow prices to recover in 2017.

Pricing Trend

Butts

Hams

Spareribs

Loins

Bacon

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Chicken

White meat items are trading at levels which are attracting buying for freezer programs. Thigh meat is currently higher cost than breast meat which is probably not sustainable; look for thigh meat prices to trend lower. Wings are tight but there seems to be enough supply to keep prices from advancing.




 

Pricing Trend

Jumbo BNLS/SKNLS Breast

Clipped Tenderloins

BNLS/SKNLS Thigh Meat

Jumbo Wings

Medium Wings

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Turkey

Turkey plants are lowering their offers to attract Christmas bookings.

Pricing Trend

UB Hens, East, 12 lb. Frozen

UB Toms, East, 22 lb. Frozen

UB Turkey Breast, East, 8-10 lb.

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Alligator      

New season gator is set to arrive shortly. Prices have softened slightly for new season supply. 

Asian Tiger Shrimp

Tiger shrimp continues to be in short supply and has now expanded to the range of 21/25 and smaller. Production is down due to limited raw material. Packers that accepted orders have been limiting new offers, making replacement prices even higher where raw material exists.

Asian White Shrimp

Asian white shrimp remain steady. Production has been up, but given the shortage of tigers, there has been additional demand causing pricing to stabilize.

Brazilian Lobster   

Prices have started to firm as we approach the holiday season. Increased exports to Asia have put added pressure on supply coming to the U.S.. Increased rejections by the FDA have caused the market to jump recently. Expect this to firm for the next few weeks and then level off until the summer season. Limson currently has adequate supply on all sizes.

Cape Haddie 

Stable costs continue for adequate demand.

Clams

Steady supply with increased demand of the 17-22 ct. size. Costs remain steady.

Cod – Alaskan Once Frozen

The Alaskan fall fishery for cod has been very poor. What has been harvested is under allocation at the moment. Supply is limited on both the 8/16 and the 16/32 and are expected to remain so until the season opening.

Cod - Atlantic Once Frozen

The Atlantic Loins have been short for some time and Limson is just coming back into stock on most of these sizes. Cost have firmed slightly and supply is only adequate at this time.

Cod – Atlantic Twice Frozen

Berent Sea's 2017 quota is expected to go down by 10%. Raw material supply uncertain. Meanwhile, market price is firm and supply tight.

Cod – Pacific Twice Frozen

Pacific cod catch s poor. Raw material price is at Atlantic cod price level.

Domestic P&D Brown Shrimp     

Domestic catch rates continue to trend well below average, causing raw material prices to move upward. Pricing will remain firm until next season unless a significant change in catch rates occur.

Domestic Peeled (PUD) Shrimp   

Domestic catch rates continue to trend well below average, causing raw material prices to move upward. Pricing will remain firm until next season unless a significant change in catch rate occurs.

Domestic Rock & Pink Shrimp    

Rock shrimp continues to be in short supply as it appears the summer and early fall seasons are a bust. There is still hope of more product coming out of Mexico off the Yucatan peninsula this fall. Pink shrimp continues to be a great alternative to this short product.

Domestic White & Brown Shrimp 

Domestic catch rates continue to trend well below average, causing raw material prices to move upward. Pricing will remain firm until next season unless a significant change in catch rate occurs.

Domestic Whitefish 

Limson has new season supply on all sizes of whitefish. The prime 8-10 oz. appear to be the hardest to come by at the moment. Season wraps up in November for the Native American fisheries for the winter.

Euro Lake Fish and Zander

Supply is good on all sizes and movement has been strong. The two euro lake perch sizes are a good option for the lack of perch on the domestic as is the zander pike perch for the lack of walleye as well. There has been a slight uptick on some costs for the fall due to the demand of domestic product as noted.
Flounder/SoleLarge sizes continue to have supply challenges. Prices firming.

Grouper      

Many containers have been delayed coming out of China. The 8-10 size continues to be the hardest to come by in major quantities but as of this week Limson will be back in stock on this item as well. Costs are steady.

King Crab   

King Crab remains short, with little relief expected until new season arrival later this fall. Costs are firming and are expected to climb. The brown crab season has started and first arrivals down to the lower 50 states have begun to trickle in, but to date have not seen much relief on cost. There has been an announcement of a 15% quota cut on king crab out of Bristol Bay or the upcoming season, but Russia indicates a quota increase by as much as 27%.

Latin White Shrimp  

Latin whites remain steady on smaller sizes. This market continues to move with Asian whites, due to raw material availability.

Mahi Mahi   

Supply is very tight, costs are very firm. Containers coming out of Taiwan have experienced some delays. The new season out of South America began October 1, but to date there is no quote for new season supply, nor has there been solid offers for quantity at this time. Expect prices to start out high for the season and taper off if the landings improve.

Mussels       

Demand has been strong for mussels as a low cost protein for some time. Currently supply is adequate, and the new season should resume late fall.

North Atlantic Lobster      

Costs have been firm on most sizes. The large 6/7 and up sizes have been in short supply and we are hoping for good landings out of Nova Scotia this fall to fill the void. We do not expect a stellar fall season like 2015, so costs should firm prior to the holidays and carry over to the spring.

Ocean Perch 

The Canadian size of the 8-12 is currently available. To date there are no issues on supply and the price has remained steady.

Orange Roughy     

Supply is adequate for average demand. Costs are currently stable.

Perch & Walleye     

To date, over 90% of the yellow lake perch quota has been harvested. Costs have been firm for the summer and have been increasing this fall. Current cases will need to last until the spring season in May. To date, the larger sized Ohio perch has been the shortest supply and hardest to come by. There will be little to no supply available through the winter. The fall fishery for walleye is underway, but landings have been sparse. We are hopeful to be able to harvest the bulk of the quote before the end of the season in December, but unless fishing improves, this will be doubtful.

Pollock - Alaskan (1x Frozen)      

Expect 4/6 and the 6/8 to be in very short supply at best through February, including the Lenten season.

Scallops      

Prices are starting to firm as we move into the fall season. Spring/summer 2017 is expected to see more adequate supply due to increased biomass. For now, supply is adequate for an average demand.

Sea Bass     

Overall, supply remains very tight due to quota cuts, lack of comparable supply of like items (i.e. black cod), and an increased demand by China. Currently, Limson has supply of both the 6 and 8 oz. portions but costs are firm. Product available through Christmas to Lenten seasons.

Snapper      

Snapper supply is adequate on the 6/8 oz. sizes but is currently short for the 4-6 oz. offering. Costs have remained steady.

Snow Crab 

The snow crab market continues to rise almost weekly. There is very limited supply on all sizes, and more so on the smaller 5-8 ct. We do not expect any relief on costs possibly until the new season in the spring. The announcement that the Alaskan quota has been cut by as much as 50% is also increasing demand due to the anticipated lack of supply.

South African Lobster      

Supply is adequate for a lackluster demand. Overall, costs are high compared to other types of lobster and have remained so for this offering. D-size are currently the shortest on the market with their costs firming as of late.

Swai

Price have increased due to extra USDA inspections and restricting supply.

Tilapia

Supply and prices remain stable.

Tuna  

Current supply is adequate for and active demand. Prices have remained firm and are expected to remain so until after the first of the year.

Dairy

 

 

 

Dairy Category

Last Week

Current Week

Block Cheese

Down

Up

Barrel Cheese

Down

Up

Butter

Up

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Large Eggs

Down

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Medium Eggs

Down

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Small Eggs

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Cheese

Speculators have been waiting for the markets to begin to converge closer together. We saw a drop in the block market and the barrel continued to lower. Speculators feel the trend of blocks moving towards the barrel market should continue. The speed of which it happens is to be determined.

Eggs

Processed eggs are fully available. Within shell eggs, retail demand is good.

Butter

Butter prices seem to be in the last throes of the holiday demand period and lower prices are expected soon.  The domestic fundamentals that have driven butter prices for the last two years are mixed, with very large stocks offsetting good demand. The surprising price drop in the face of peak holiday demand last month could be a sign of things to come. Expectations of the November 30, 2016 stocks number may exceed 200 million pounds – the highest level in 20 years. By itself, that should push prices lower with more downside than upside in prices. 

Grocery & Bakery

Wheat

Semolina flour prices jumped 5%, as pasta manufacturers booked through December and also covered half of the first quarter of 2017. Milling quality may be driving this rally. Pizza flour prices are also edging higher as millers pay increased premiums for higher-protein wheat.

Pricing Trend

High-Gluten Flour

Semolina Pasta Flour

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Soybeans

Higher palm oil prices are pulling soybean oil prices up, now reaching two-year highs. Palm oil production in Malaysia has been slow to recover from El Nino drought stress, which is keeping world veg-oil supplies snug.

Pricing Trend

Soybean Oil

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Sugar

Sugar prices are firm at most plants, with ongoing concerns about raw cane sugar availability.

Pricing Trend

Sugar

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